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Sunday, September 9, 2007

Asian economies - growth, inflation, interest rates

Now with 6.5 sessions remaining until Fed's announcement about key interest rates, I came across an interesting table of stats from Matthew's Funds Weekly Update showing the growth rate, inflation and key central bank interest rate in some key Asian economies compared with that of the US.



As expected China and India continue to lead the growth rates at 11.9% and 9.3% respectively, with inflation at 5.6% and 3.9% respectively. In order to curb inflation, the central bank in these two countries have hiked their interest rates by 0.9% and 0.75% respectively since 08/06. This contrasts starkly with the growth rate of 1.9% in US and no change in key interest rate since 08/06 - it has held steady at 5.25%. Thailand and Indonesia are exceptions to interest rate/inflation relationship - with these two countries showing a positive inflation growth of 1.1% and 6.5% respectively, but a fall in interest rates by -1.75% and -3.5% respectively.
The interest rates in Indonesia have been lowered to account for slower price increases and fall in inflation from 18% to 6.5% since fuel subsidies were scaled back in 2005. The military coup in Thailand has weighed in on the economy and inflation and money supply have been going downwards since mid-2006.

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